Exercise short-stack calibration paths
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@@ -15,6 +15,7 @@ export JAVA_HOME="/Applications/Android Studio.app/Contents/jbr/Contents/Home"
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./gradlew :sim:test # fast calibration-policy tests
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./gradlew :sim:run --args="styles" # enforced controlled style experiment
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./gradlew :sim:run --args="calibrate" # enforced 4×100k fixed-pool skill + style calibration
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./gradlew :sim:run --args="short-stacks" # persistent stacks; asserts side-pot/call-clamp coverage
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./gradlew :app:assembleDebug # build the APK
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```
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@@ -48,6 +49,8 @@ export JAVA_HOME="/Applications/Android Studio.app/Contents/jbr/Contents/Home"
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4. **The simulator is how bots get tuned.** Run it after any bot change, across
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several seeds — a single seed will happily agree with a wrong conclusion.
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The quick 50k run is diagnostic; only `calibrate` is an enforced result.
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Its paired skill comparisons reset equal stacks to isolate skill, then a
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mandatory persistent-stack pass verifies that short-stack pricing is live.
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5. **A skill parameter must not smuggle in a style change.** Several bugs came
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from exactly this: `positionAwareness` silently reduced hands played,
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`potOddsRespect` systematically loosened weak players (which is a *winning*
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@@ -77,6 +80,10 @@ export JAVA_HOME="/Applications/Android Studio.app/Contents/jbr/Contents/Home"
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- Small samples lie. 1,000 hands is not enough to rank profiles. Use the paired
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4×100k fixed-opponent calibration before accepting a skill change; it computes
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confidence bounds and exits nonzero when the contract fails.
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- Equal starting stacks are deliberate in the paired skill experiment, but they
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cannot exercise side-pot pricing. `calibrate` therefore finishes with 3,000
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persistent-stack hands and fails unless both `eligiblePot != pot` and
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`toCall > stack` occur. `:sim:test` pins the same paths at a fixed seed.
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## Status
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@@ -95,6 +102,8 @@ export JAVA_HOME="/Applications/Android Studio.app/Contents/jbr/Contents/Home"
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are allowed to overlap, but both must beat Intermediate and Intermediate must
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beat Beginner with a positive 95% lower confidence bound. Current lower bounds
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are +24.42, +11.01, and +24.67 bb/100 respectively.
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- Persistent-stack calibration currently reaches 351 decisions with inaccessible
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side-pot chips and stack-clamped calls in 3,000 hands (seed 20260729).
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- Expert differs by mechanism: it alone maintains opponent reads. The aggression
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prior is measured by the controlled neutral TAG experiment (0.231 observed,
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0.22 configured), not selected because it looks plausible.
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